Q3 2025 Market Perspective: Navigating a Concentrated Advance

Key Benchmark Performance (As of 9/30/2025)

• S&P 500 (SPY): Q3: 8.1% | YTD: 14.7%
• MSCI ACWI: Q3: 7.5% | YTD: 18.6%
• Mag 7 : Q3: 17.0% | YTD: 21.0%
• Gold (GLD): Q3: 16.6% | 46.8%
• iShares Bitcoin Trust (iBIT): Q3: 6.0% | YTD: 22.5%

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The third quarter was characterized by a powerful, albeit narrow, market advance. While headline indices delivered impressive returns, the underlying story is one of significant divergence, driven by the secular tailwind of AI. Global equities continued their ascent, with the MSCI ACWI gaining 7.5% in Q3 (18.6% YTD). However, the locus of performance remains concentrated. The ‘Mag 7’ surged another 17% for the quarter (21% YTD), outpacing broader market segments and understandably fueling questions about the durability of this rally. In contrast, the S&P 500 ‘Equal Weight’ Index was up just 4.8% during the quarter.

Concerns of a market peak are understandable. However, the exuberance is confined mainly to a handful of mega-cap technology firms. Excluding the top 10 names, the S&P 500 trades at a forward P/E of 19.5x, within its long-term historical 18- 20x range. This is not a market-wide bubble, but rather exuberance for specific AI stocks where only time will tell if those companies can grow into their valuations.

Our core strategic thesis in public equity remains unchanged: timing the market is a futile exercise. We advocate staying invested and urge those on the sidelines to dollar-cost average into the market, but with a more nuanced approach to portfolio construction. To harness the upside of secular growth leaders while mitigating concentration risk, we are blending traditional market-cap weighted exposures with equal-weighted solutions. This barbell strategy ensures participation in technology-driven gains while maintaining disciplined diversification across other, less richly valued sectors of the economy.

Beyond equities, true diversifiers proved their worth. Gold (GLD) and Bitcoin (iBIT) posted Q3 gains of 16.6% and 6.0%, respectively. We view these assets not as speculative plays, but as non-sovereign stores of value in an environment of persistent currency debasement. 

Entering Q4, our forward-looking analysis is keyed on three critical variables: the durability of AI-driven valuations, the trajectory of core economic fundamentals across developed markets, and the cascading impact of future central bank policy shifts. We’ll keep monitoring these developments to ensure we are carefully managing your public market exposure.

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Important Disclosures

_{One Oak Holdings LLC d.b.a. OneWell (“OneWell”) is a registered investment adviser registered with the state of Maryland. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This material has not been approved or verified by the SEC or any state securities authority.}

_{This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment strategy. The views expressed reflect the judgment of the OneWell Investment Committee as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.}

_{Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against loss.}

_{References to specific securities, asset classes, indices, or investment vehicles are for illustrative purposes only. Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. Forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and actual outcomes may differ materially.}

_{Investments in alternative assets, including commodities and digital assets such as Bitcoin, involve additional risks and may not be suitable for all investors.}

_{Investment advice is provided only pursuant to an executed investment advisory agreement. OneWell’s Form ADV, Part 2A is available upon request or at adviserinfo.sec.gov.}

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