Q2 2025 Market Perspective: Navigating the Post-Shock Recovery

In Q2 2025, the S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI rebounded strongly after experiencing sharp declines
in the immediate aftermath of ‘Liberation Day’ news. For the quarter, the S&P 500 gained
10.9%, while the MSCI ACWI, our preferred global benchmark, rose 11.5%. Gains were
widespread, but primarily concentrated in the tech sector, with the Russell 2000 Technology
index soaring 22.7%, driven by AI-related themes.

During the quarter, we advised our clients to follow the adage of “Keep Calm and Carry On.” For
those with excess cash, our approach of dollar-cost averaging to “buy the dip” proved wise.
While in hindsight we might wish for even more aggressive investing of excess cash, such
second-guessing is futile given market unpredictability.

This quarter, we offer a broader view of the investment landscape and how we at OneWell
approach different asset classes. We draw heavily from Ted Seides, host of the popular
podcast, Capital Allocators, and a recent vignette he shared titled, “The Hardest Day To Invest
Is Today.” Ted is a disciple of Dave Swensen, who pioneered the Yale Endowment model, and
from whom we also trace our heritage.

In the early 1990s, Jeremy Grantham, a quant whiz and founder of GMO with approximately
$65 billion in assets under management, famously dubbed the end of the roaring ‘80s as the
conclusion of the great bull market. At the end of 1992, Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock was
trading at $12,000 per share, and many believed the “easy money” had been made; yet, we
now know that was the beginning of another historic bull market (today, the stock is worth
$711,000 per share— a 58x increase over 32 years!).

Today is similar. We face increased uncertainty due to tariffs, economic conditions, private
market liquidity, and crowded alternative investments. Even leading macro strategists question
the longevity of US exceptionalism. So, when traditional asset classes seem unappealing, what
options does an investor have?

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Public equities: US equities feature resilient megacap companies and a potential for lagging
sectors, such as small-cap, value, and biotech, to catch up, supported by implicit backstops
from the Fed and Treasury. However, they face headwinds from high valuations, rising
government debt, and escalating geopolitical risks. International developed markets, while seemingly cheaper, struggle with structural inefficiencies and political instability. Broad exposure
is hard to justify outside select markets like Japan. Emerging markets offer attractive valuations
and long-term growth driven by favorable demographics, but remain exposed to political and
currency risks.

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Private equity offers higher long-term returns, yet liquidity constraints, extended holding
periods, and valuation uncertainty complicate commitments. Private credit, which offers
attractive yields, is experiencing significant inflows and compressed spreads, raising concerns
about underwriting and resilience—a situation Jamie Dimon has recently likened to the
subprime bubble. Venture capital benefits from continuous innovation, especially in AI. Still,
fierce competition, limited access to top deals and managers, and challenging exit environments
temper its appeal.

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Real estate remains largely unloved despite potential tailwinds from housing shortages and
commercial recovery. Its absolute return prospects are modest, clouded by uncertainty in work
patterns and interest rates, which may limit upside and leave macroeconomic risks lingering.

The most attractive risk-adjusted opportunities might be found in overlooked market segments,
such as lower-market private equity, where favorable entry valuations and active management
drive strong alpha. Niche public strategies, including small-cap equities or biotech, also present
appealing entry points due to recent dislocations, enabling savvy managers to capitalize.

Investing remains difficult. At OneWell, our disciplined approach, which combines a diversified
global index portfolio with exposure to select niches in private and public markets, alongside
top-tier managers, remains a strategy that can generate strong, sustained risk-adjusted returns
across cycles.

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Important Disclosures

_{One Oak Holdings LLC d.b.a. OneWell (“OneWell”) is a registered investment adviser registered with the state of Maryland. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This material has not been approved or verified by the SEC or any state securities authority.}

_{This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment strategy. The views expressed reflect the judgment of the OneWell Investment Committee as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.}

_{Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against loss.}

_{References to specific securities, asset classes, indices, or investment vehicles are for illustrative purposes only. Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. Forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and actual outcomes may differ materially.}

_{Investments in alternative and private assets, including private equity, private credit, real estate, commodities, and digital assets such as Bitcoin, involve additional risks, including illiquidity and valuation uncertainty, and may not be suitable for all investors.
Investment advice is provided only pursuant to an executed investment advisory agreement. OneWell’s Form ADV, Part 2A is available upon request or at adviserinfo.sec.gov.}

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© 2025 One Oak Holdings LLC. All rights reserved.}

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